They may just miss out on the final, but Betfair’s Andrew Hughes thinks punters should still side with the Tigers in Tuesday’s Asia Cup game.
After their victory against India, Bangladesh will not want to change too much. Shahadat Hossain was the only bowling failure and could be replaced by Nazmul Hossain whilst Imrul Kayes is a candidate to come into the top of the order.
Sri Lanka have a limited squad to pick from though they may recall Chamara Kapugedera as the experiment of promoting Farveez Maharoof to number seven failed badly against Pakistan. Lasith Malinga may be rested given that this is a dead game for Sri Lanka and medium pacer Shaminda Eranga could be in line for a recall.
Venue and Conditions
In the last couple of games at the Shere Bangla Stadium, both Bangladesh and India have chased down large totals and it is becoming clear that the evening dew gives the side batting second a significant advantage. The forecast is clear for the next two days so there shouldn’t be any of the heavy rain that preceded Sunday’s game.
After shocking India in their last game, Bangladesh lie third in the table and need to beat Sri Lanka comfortably to reach the final. On paper their record is not good, with only two wins against the Sri Lankans in 29 attempts. But they are getting better. Going back to the autumn of 2010 they have won 7 of their 19 one-day internationals against Test-playing nations, a success rate of 36 per cent.
In this tournament so far, Bangladesh have played better cricket than Sri Lanka. The return of Mashrafe Mortaza has strengthened their seam bowling, whilst their battery of spinners is one of the more effective units in one-day international cricket, particularly at home. And against India, their star batsmen Tamim Iqbal and Shakib al Hasan at last had some support from the rest of the batting line-up.
Punters also have to factor in Sri Lanka’s weariness after a long tournament in Australia and the absence of Thisara Perera and Angelo Mathews, which makes their batting fragile. Against a team with nothing to play for at a venue where winning the toss could determine the game, it makes no sense that Bangladesh should be as big as 5.0 [4/1] in the win market and they are a stand-out bet at that price.
Top Bangladesh Batsman
Although some of the lesser names chipped in last time, Tamim Iqbal and Shakib al Hasan are still the men you want to rely on in this market and at 5.5 [9/2] Shakib is a decent bet.
Top Sri Lankan Batsman
Upul Tharanga played a useful hand last time against Pakistan, but he bats too low in the order to be an attractive betting proposition and with Tillakaratne Dilshan out of sorts and Dinesh Chandimal not building on his good performances in Australia, it’s best to stick with the reliable Kumar Sangakkara at 5.0 [4/1].
Tamim Iqbal and Nazimuddin have opened seven times for Bangladesh and only once has Nazimuddin contributed more runs than his partner. Back ‘Tamim Iqbal – 0.5 runs’ in the Nazimuddin v Iqbal market at 1.75 [8/11] or better.
Andrew Hughes says: Back Bangladesh to beat Sri Lanka at 5.0