Having been humiliated in Cape Town, can Australia bounce back at the Wanderers and level the Two-match series? AOC previews tomorrow’s match and makes some betting suggestions.
Team news
On the eve of the second and final Test, it seems almost certain that South Africa will be unchanged. Ahead of the first Test, it was unclear whether A.B. De Villiers had fully recovered from his broken finger, but he didn’t seem to show any discomfort at Newlands.
Imran Tahir didn’t make (and didn’t need to) make much of an impact in Cape Town, but is likely to retain his place ahead of Paul Harris. As for third seamer Vernon Philander, his eight wickets on debut should ensure he enjoys an extended run in the side at the expense of Lonwabo Tsotsobe.
One change has already been forced on Australia. Shaun Marsh has a sore back and though David Warner has been drafted in as a replacement, it will be Usman Khawaja slotting in at three.
We can also expect to see 18-year-old fast bowler Pat Cummins make his Test debut. Both Mitchell Johnson and Peter Siddle were poor in Cape Town, but Johnson offers more with the bat, so it looks like it will be Siddle who drops out.
Venue and Pitch
The Wanderers has a reputation as an intimidating arena for tourists, but the stats suggest otherwise, with South Africa losing five of their last 10 Tests at the stadium known as the Bullring.
It is one of the few fast-bowling friendly venues left on the international circuit and batting there can be a bruising experience. You don’t get many draws there, only one in the last 11 Tests, but it is worth noting that the weather forecast isn’t great, with thunderstorms and showers predicted from Friday onwards.
Worth A Punt?
Yesterday we discussed the value of backing the struggling Ricky Ponting to top-score in Australia’s first innings, but there also seems to be value in putting a few pounds behind the tourists’ other old hands. With Australia’s top-order seemingly clueless against the swinging ball, it seems likely that they will lose early wickets, leaving skipper Michael Clarke and Michael Hussey (numbers 5 and 6 in the batting order) to pick up the pieces.
Hussey may have struggled in the first Test, but he claimed three consecutive man-of-the-match awards in Sri Lanka, and is determined as they come. Clarke’s first-innings 151 in Cape Town was a truly exceptional knock, and Australia’s spectacular second-innings capitulation shouldn’t detract from the fact that Australia’s captain is a class act with bat in hand.
With Clarke at 5.9 and Hussey 6 to top-score in Australia’s innings it may be worth playing safe and backing both.
For all the latest odds check out betfair.com
