You’ll know all about Michael Vaughan, the Ashes-winning captain and media pundit. But do you know about Michael Vaughan, the Betfair Ambassador? He’s betting.betfair.com’s cricket expert and uses all his experience as a former Test and ODI captain, number one ranked Test batsman and Test Match Special analyst to pick the best bets for Betfair customers, including in-play advice during Test matches.
Highlights over the last 12 months include a bullish recommendation that England would win the Ashes and tipping Straussy’s boys to win every one of the four Tests against mighty India in the summer. So, over to you Michael…
“I want to walk you through a few of the ground rules surrounding placing a bet before the toss is made in a Test match.
“A good starting point is to think about whether you want to have the draw on your side to start with or if you’re pretty confident that there is going to be a result. So here are a few things to consider.
THE BOWLERS
“Limited-overs cricket is very much about the batsmen: big bats, small boundaries, lovely tracks, field restrictions and all that.
“In Test cricket it’s the reverse. Bowlers are the key factor because you can’t win a Test without taking 20 wickets. Having a Shane Warne or a Muttiah Muralitharan on the pitch obviously increases the likelihood of getting a result, but not many teams have a bowler of that calibre. Look at the bowlers on both sides and consider if there are enough wicket-takers to take 20 scalps. If the answer is yes, you’re halfway to seeing a result. If the answer is probably not you also need to consider other factors…
THE CONDITIONS
“We saw this summer how some of the world’s best batsmen, like Sachin Tendulkar and Gautam Gambhir, struggled against the likes of James Anderson and Stuart Broad. With all due respect to those two fine seam bowlers, they wouldn’t often be mentioned as two of the game’s all-time greats (not yet anyway…) but when the ball is swinging they can be unplayable. Wickets can fall very quickly when the ball is moving, and that of course reduces the chances of the draw. But conditions alone are only part of the story because we also need to consider…
THE PITCH
“Assistance through the air can make a huge difference at English (and occasionally South African…) grounds but featherbeds in the subcontinent can often negate the effect of decent bowling conditions. We’ve seen over the years how teams can rack up 500-plus runs when batting in India or Sri Lanka because the wicket starts as a good one and often gets even better. That’s great for batsmen’s averages but it makes it difficult for a result to be found unless there’s exceptional bowling or very poor batting. And the likelihood of a result can also be further diminished as a result of…
THE WEATHER
“These days umpires do their best to make up for time lost due to rain or bad light by extending play, but often that’s not enough. England’s bowlers performed miracles to win the first Test against Sri Lanka this summer in Cardiff after so many overs were lost to rain. But though Andrew Strauss’ men dominated the tourists in the next two Tests, too much time was lost to rain to give England a chance of taking 20 wickets and winning the match.
“Don’t be put off just because bad weather is forecast for the start of a Test. Over an hour was lost to rain at the start of the first Test between South Africa and Australia in early November and the price on the draw came in dramatically before play commenced to just 2.5 (6/4). That looked a pretty silly price when the match was over halfway through day three! Lastly, you need to consider…
THE TOSS
“You can’t always predict exactly what the captain who wins the toss will choose to do. I remember a certain match at Edgbaston where Ricky Ponting surprised me by choosing to bowl first!
“So sometimes it’s worth waiting for the toss before placing your bet. If the team bowling last has a champion spinner like Graeme Swann or Daniel Vettori in their ranks and you feel that the pitch will deteriorate, you might conclude that wickets will fall late on in the match and lead to a result.
THE BET
“Hopefully once you’ve considered all these factors you will have decided if a result is likely to be on the cards. If you think there will be one, go back to the first factor I looked at: think about who has the best bowling attack and consider backing that side.
“Alternatively, do some research before the toss is made and find out what the stats say about any bias towards teams batting first or second winning the match at that particular ground. If you think there will be a result and want to place your bet before the toss or feel both sides are pretty evenly matched and you can’t split them, it may pay to ‘lay’ the draw, meaning you have a winning bet irrespective of which of the two actually wins. “That way you always have the security of being able to back the draw at a bigger price if early wickets fall and you want to be sure that at the very least, you get your stake back.”
Fancy a cheeky punt on the cricket? Then check out www.betfair.com for all your flutter-based needs.
