We’ve got good news for those of you who enjoy a cheeky flutter on the cricket. AOC have enlisted Betfair, our new betting partners, and asked them to offer up the sort of handy advice that should allow you to have a punt and hopefully make a tidy profit at the end of the day…
WHY BETFAIR?
These days there are more betting websites where you can strike a cricket wager than there are centuries on Sachin’s CV. So what makes Betfair stand out from the rest?
For starters you almost always find better value. That means that virtually every time you strike a winning bet you win more than you’d have won betting with another firm. Then there’s the unique ability to ‘lay’ a bet as well as back one.
Essentially that’s betting on something not happening. For example, in a Test match you can lay the draw, which means you’re taking the view that the match will produce a result and you’d win irrespective of which team triumphs.
We also offer the option of ‘in play’, where you bet during the match all the way to the final ball. Betting on different outcomes to the same game at ever-changing odds is known as trading.
WHAT MAKES A GOOD BET?
Cricket is the ultimate game of stats and one that throws up clear trends. For example, certain Test match pitches almost always produce results. Trent Bridge, where the ball tends to move around for at least the first three days, sees wickets fall at regular intervals and – barring a lot of rain – we’re unlikely to get a draw. Some international batsmen just love playing at a particular ground.
Whether it’s because it’s their home ground, a wicket that suits their style or small boundaries that favour big-hitters, certain willow- wielders always do well there.
Alternatively, at some ODI grounds there’s a huge bias towards teams batting first. A deteriorating pitch, dew or extra swing generated under lights are all reasons that make it tough to chase at certain grounds. You want to be siding with the team defending a total.
So doing your research and hopefully finding a few trends is the first part. Next we need to look for instances where the odds on offer are greater than the chances of those events actually happening. Where those odds are overly generous, you get what is known as betting value. Once you’ve found an instance of that, it’s worth striking a bet.
LET’S LOOK AT AN EXAMPLE…
Hindsight is a fine thing. But perhaps those who backed South Africa in play on Betfair during the recent T20 against Australia weren’t just taking a desperate leap of faith. Things didn’t look good for the Proteas at 84-7 chasing Australia’s 147. At this stage you could have got odds of 69/1 on Betfair on the hosts winning. But Wayne Parnell and Rusty Theron have played a couple of explosive cameos before and can clear the ropes if they get going. Speaking of ropes, The Wanderers isn’t that big and the altitude there helps the ball travel further.
Add to the equation the fact that Australia’s bowling line-up was pretty inexperienced, with the likes of Pat Cummins and Mitchell Marsh featuring, and all of a sudden South Africa’s task starts to look like a tough one rather than an impossible one. A few big hits and the building of pressure can change the whole momentum of the game. And so it proved, with Parnell (29 from 11) and Theron (30 from 16) guiding South Africa home courtesy of some brutal lower-order hitting.
The clues were there: it was a chaseable target; it was just a case of deciding whether the men in green could hold their nerve (cough, cough…). Of course, this is an extreme example and not all games ebb and flow this way, nor do tailenders perform heroics with the bat every day.
But hands up all of you who backed England at 6/5 to win the ODI series in India. Now hands down and hang your heads in shame. India were a great price at 4/5 to exact revenge for the 3-0 defeat over in England. Alastair Cook’s young side were always going to struggle in Indian conditions, just like MS Dhoni’s men did over here. Both sides had players out injured but India have a greater pool of ODI players to choose from. And let’s not forget who are the world champions after all! The evidence it was going to be an Indian series win was there; it was just a case of digging for it.
Make sure you head to www.betfair.com for all your flutter-based needs. You never know, you might even make a bob or two. Make sure you bet responsibly though…
