Former England skipper and Betfair ambassador Michael Vaughan offers up some sage advice for those of you who enjoy a friendly punt on the cricket.
In my last blog I outlined some basic concepts you should keep in mind when looking to place a bet on the cricket. This time around I’ll apply those principles as I weigh up how to bet on the upcoming England v Pakistan Test series over in the UAE. Given that we won’t know too much at this stage about the wicket for the first Test, I’ll be looking at the series as a whole.
THE BOWLERS
I mentioned last time that the single most important factor to consider ahead of a Test is the strength of the two bowling attacks involved. The reason England have such a challenge on their hands in this series is that – for the first time in the last 12 months – they will be facing a bowling attack which is as capable of taking 20 wickets as their own.
In Australia, Andrew Strauss had more quality options, more variety and more in-form bowlers than Ricky Ponting, and that went a long way to deciding the outcome of the series. When India toured this summer, Strauss had bowlers who could make the ball swing whilst MS Dhoni lost Zaheer Khan, his best bowler, during the first Test and had to make do with inexperienced players who didn’t know how to exploit English conditions. We all know what happened next.
Graeme Swann has been vital to all of England’s recent success, but he might just meet his match at last in the form of Saeed Ajmal in this series. The 34-year old from Faisalabad was considered very much an ODI specialist for a long time but is now a mainstay in the Test team and an extremely dangerous bowler on turning wickets. James Anderson and Stuart Broad are two of the best pace bowlers in the longest format, but Pakistan have Umar Gul and, as ever, a number of promising youngsters coming through. There’s not much to choose between the two teams in the bowling department.
THE BOWLERS
One of the secrets behind England’s recent success in Test cricket has been their ability to adapt to different conditions, but the UAE has been Pakistan’s borrowed home ever since they were prevented from playing in their own country, so Misbah-ul-Haq’s men will be far more familiar with the pitches they will encounter in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
England won’t have much in terms of strong opposition to play against in their warm-up matches and could be caught a little under- cooked early on. All in all, it’s probably advantage Pakistan in this particular department.
WICKETS AND WEATHER
The weather is always a big consideration when working out whether or not we’re going to get a
result. This is unlikely to be a factor this time round; the odd session may be cut short because of bad light but we’re extremely unlikely to get rain so we should pretty much get our full quota of overs played in each of the three Tests.
Wickets in the UAE are generally very good for batting, at least during the first three days, so I’d be very surprised if any of the three Tests didn’t go into day five. I can’t envisage a scenario where either team has a session where they go out and take seven or eight wickets because the conditions suddenly become favourable for bowling.
Whoever wins the toss will want to bat first and post a big first innings total, and with the wicket likely to deteriorate on days four and five neither captain will want to be chasing more than 200 to win the match.
We have two good bowling attacks, as I’ve mentioned already, so both teams are capable of taking 20 wickets but, all in all, this should be a really good contest between bat and ball.
THE TEAMS
Strauss’ big trump card is that his Test team is settled and they’ve developed a winning habit. Misbah is relatively new to international captaincy, but his understated style of leadership and phlegmatic character means this Pakistan team look a controlled set of players who are all pulling in the same direction without big egos spoiling the team morale; something we haven’t always been able to say about Pakistan in the past. Still, there’s more experience in the England team and that just about gives them the edge here.
THE BET
Pakistan are too big at 3.5 [5/2] on Betfair to win the series before a ball is bowled, especially when you consider that because they’ll be more comfortable in the conditions early on their best chance of winning a Test will come in the first match.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they did end up taking the first Test, but I wouldn’t be too shocked if England then improved as the series went on and won the next two matches, or at the very least claim a win and a draw. So, for me, the best bet is to back Pakistan at 3.5 and lay them off after the first Test (those of you who have been keeping up will remember that a ‘lay’ is backing against an outcome). As long as they don’t lose first up, we’ll have a chance to ensure a profit on all three possible series outcomes.
VAUGHAN’S ADVICE: Back-to-lay Pakistan @ 3.5 [5/2]
Fancy a cheeky punt on the cricket? Then check out www.betfair.com for all your flutter-based needs.
