As the ODI series between Pakistan and England moves to Dubai on Saturday, the teams are still pretty even and the toss is still crucial, says Ed Kemp.
Two up in the four-match series, England will have regained a little confidence after their chastening Test defeats and in doing so have already avoided a total humiliation of a tour.
But let’s not overestimate the scale of England’s comeback in ODIs (after their drubbing in India) based on two games in which they’ve won an important toss and batted first – with Alastair Cook holding the innings together – and then restricted a short, misfiring Pakistani batting line-up.
Kevin Pietersen, Jonathan Trott and Eoin Morgan are all still bearing the scars of a Test series which left them severely doubting their method against spin. Morgan has looked a shadow of himself in the UAE, though an unbeaten 25 in which he managed a bit of time at the crease and gradually showed glimpses of form will have helped. But there is no escaping the fact that there are significant individuals within this team who are short on confidence.
As a group, however, there will be a positive mood within the England camp after the two victories. Past evidence suggests that when Alastair Cook gets on a run of form, it continues for a decent stretch, whilst a number of those brought in after the Test series – Ravi Bopara, Samit Patel and Steven Finn – will be more than happy with the way they have performed. Though he’s slipped slightly under the radar so far, because of the brilliance of Finn, Graeme Swann has shown he’s still England’s leading one-day bowler, again proving miserly at key stages, going for 2.7 an over in the first match and 4.1 in the second.
Meanwhile, Pakistan have issues to address. Cook was dropped on 28 on his way to 102 in the second match, and it wasn’t the only misdemeanour by makeshift keeper Umar Akmal in the series. He is not a regular stumper, and certainly not one of international class, but the question for Pakistan is how to balance their side when they have a tail that begins at No. 8 – it was Abdur Rehman’s struggles to locate ball with bat that took the wind out of a late potential comeback for Pakistan in the last game. And whatever side they opt for, the team might benefit from a change of tactics in the field. Misbah-ul-Haq’s field placings have allowed easy singles early on pitches where it has been difficult to get big shots away, and enabled Cook – no big hitter – to keep the board ticking easily with the kind of nudges and nurdles he was able to play on exit from the womb.
If Pakistan win the toss and bat first, England will be faced with a new challenge. It will be down to the hosts to do more with willow in hand against an in-form bowling attack to put England’s still-struggling batsmen under pressure.
Best Bets
Our betting partners at Betfair analyse the odds for tomorrow’s contest.
The match odds market is struggling to split the two teams with Pakistan 1.98 and England 2.00.
It’s probable that if the ball swung under lights in Abu Dhabi, it could well do the same in Dubai and the smart money will once more be on the side that bats first.
England, of course, have the edge and if any side were to buck the bat-first-win trend than it is most likely to be them.
Younis Khan is Pakistan’s top runscorer on this ground with 213 runs in eight matches at an average of 30. He is 4.60.
Cook, understandably, is favourite priced as short as 3.75. But one can’t help but think that if Cook can prosper, then surely Jonathan Trott should be in the runs, too. He is 5.10. Eoin Morgan keeps getting bigger and at 6.40 he is a tempting wager indeed. With 25 from 29 last time he looked more like his old self and he is worth a risk. Ravi Bopara is 5.20.
Recommended bet: Eoin Morgan top England batsman at 6.40
